Who Do You Trust?

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Nate predicts that Silverado will win a horse race among 10 horses. Nate's predictions are correct 85% of the time. How confident should you be that Silverado will win?

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85% confident

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How confident should you be that Akiko will graduate from university based on her ACY score of 25?

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The information given above does not help to answer this question

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Njeri, an expert astronomer, claims a 100% chance of an asteroid hitting Earth. She has been right 17 out of 20 times in similar claims. How confident should you be?

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85% confident

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Which factor is most important in deciding whether or not to trust someone’s testimony?

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How accurate her testimony has been recently on topics like the one that she’s talking about now

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Alice buys 15 shares of ACME. How confident should you be that ACME’s stock price will rise within a week?

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The information given above does not help to answer this question

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Dr. Kim is a renowned climate scientist who has accurately predicted 90% of the major climate events over the past decade. She now predicts a severe storm will hit the coast next week. How confident should you be in her prediction?

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90% confident

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Jordan is a professional chess player who wins 80% of his matches against players ranked in the top 100. Today, he is playing against a player ranked 95th. How confident should you be that Jordan will win the match?

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80% confident

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Maria is a seasoned chef known for her ability to perfectly cook steaks 95% of the time. She is preparing a steak dinner for a special event tonight. How confident should you be that the steak will be perfectly cooked?

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95% confident