GSSH 307: Final Exam Review Part III

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Models are used by Political Scientists to predict the popular vote

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Electoral Environment

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Used to understand voter intentions throughout the election campaign

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Polling

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Capture real-time voting data, providing insights into how different demographics voted

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Exit Polls

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Rely on key variables (economic, political, and social conditions) that have historically influenced elections in order to predict the outcome of the popular vote

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Forecasting Models

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GDP, Inflation, Consumer Confidence, Unemployment, & Wage Growth

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Economic Variables

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Partisanship, Incumbency, Presidential Approval Ratings, Political Affiliation, and Length of time a party has held the White House

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Political Environment Variables

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Critical for forecasters to make accurate predictions

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Polling Data

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Created by major networks in the 1960s to pool resources for vote reporting

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News Election Service (NES)

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Beginning with CBS in 1968, a type of polling used to try to understand why people voted a certain way

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Exit polling

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Organization that media outlets outsource their exit polling data to

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Edison Research