Research Methods #1

Research Methods #1

Poll

After reading about Andrea Yates and you applying your knowledge of the psychological approaches - do you think Andrea knew what she was doing?

• Yes

• No

Poll

Dr. Winkle conducts basic research on the systematic changes in intelligence associated with aging. It is most likely that Dr. Winkle is a(n)________psychologist.

• clinkcal

• social

• developmental

• industrial/organizational

Poll

Dr. Karima conducts basic research on the relative effectiveness of massed practice and spaced practice on a person's ability to remember information. Dr. Karima is most likely a __________ psychologist.

• social

• developmental

• personality

• biological

• cognitive

Poll

Which specialists are the most likely to prescribe a drug for the treatment of a psychological disorder?

• developmental psychologist

• clinical psychologist

• personality psychologist

• psychiatrists

Multiple Choice

In your HEAD - solve this problem -

Start with 1,000 and add 40 to it. Add 1,000. Then add another 30 followed by another 1,000. Next add 20. Add another 1000. Finally, add 10. What is the total?

• 3,900

• 5,000

• 4,098

• 5,100

• 4,100

Open Ended

If you drop a bullet off a table 3 feet high, and fire another one straight across an empty football field, which hits the ground first?

Open Ended

A ball rolls down a spiral track. The end of the track curves left. What path does the ball take when it leaves the track?

Open Ended

A wooden cube is 1 inch long on each side. How many cubs form a cube 2 inches along each side?

Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias

• •Hindsight Bias - the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it.

• •Also known as the “I knew it all along” phenomenon.

We knew it all along....

- After we LOSE the Friday night football game, fans will say "that stupid move by the coach lost us the championship!"

or

-After we WIN the Friday night football game, fans will say "that gutsy move by the coach was a great call"

Separation weakens romantic attraction

When presented with the statement above, most find this "true" statement unsurprising.

"out of sight, out of mind"

Separation strengthens romantic attraction.

When presented with the statement above, most find this "true" statement unsurprising.

"Absence make the heart grow fonder"

Poll

I emailed you all a statement - Does the finding strike you as surprising or not suprising?

• Surprising

• No Surprising

Surprised or not surprised

1.       Researchers have found that people with high self-confidence are more susceptible to flattery than those with low self-confidence. In a sentence or two, why do you think this is true? Does the finding strike you as surprising or not surprising? 

2.       Researchers have found that people with low self-confidence are more susceptible to flattery than those with high self-confidence. In a sentence or two, why do you think this is true? Does the finding strike you as surprising or not surprising? (circle one) -          Surprising -          not surprising 

Poll

If you have three balled up pieces of paper - how confident are you that you can shoot all three into a trash basket 10 feet away?

• confident

• not confident

Poll

If we did this demonstration in class - which gender would win?

• guys

• girls

Poll

If we did this demonstration in class - which gender would win?

• guys

• girls

Overconfidence

•Overconfidence- the tendency to think we know more than we do.

  –Together with hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate our intuition

What does it mean to perceive order in random events?

•In our natural eagerness to make sense of an unpredictable world, we are prone to perceive patterns.

Poll

If you flip a coin 6 times… which of the following sequences of heads (H) and tails (T) is most likely?

• •HHHTTT

• •HTTHTH

• •HHHHHH

•After you pick a pattern – get a coin and flip it 6 times to see if you are correct.

As human we also try to perceive order in random events.

In our natural eagerness to make sense of an unpredictable world, we are prone to perceive patterns.

Critical Thinking

•Critical Thinking –thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions.  Rather, it examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions.  “Smart thinking”

How do hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the tendency to perceive order in random events illustrate why science based answers are more valid than those based on 'common' sense?

Hindsight bias, overconfidence and our eagerness to perceive patterns in random events, leads us to overestimate the wight of 'common' sense thinking.
Scientific inquiry can help us overcome such biases and short comings.