OSCM 306 Quiz 3 2nd

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion do not include:

• Executive Opinions
• Delphi Methods
• Second Opinions
• Customer Surveys

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this year based on historical data:

5 years ago 15,000; 4 years ago 16,000; 3 years ago 18,000

2 years ago 20,000; Last year 21,000

• 22,800

• 19,500

• 18,750

• 22,000

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

• The Delphi Method
• Consumer
   Surveys
• Sales force opinions
• Time Series Analysts

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

• Quantity and quality
• Cost and accuracy
• Cost  & time horizon
• Accuracy & time horizon

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

• .5
• 1.0
• .01
• .1

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

• Consumer surveys
• Expert opinions
• Predictor variables
• Time series data

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited is doing a naive forecast for this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on historical data:

June 110; July 150; August 120

September 160

• 130

• 100

• 200

• 140

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Y_t = 40,000 + 150t. What is the forecast for July if t = 3 in July this year?

• 40,450

• 42,250

• 40,600

• 42,400

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

• an associate forecast

• a moving average forecast

• regression

• a naive forecast

Customer service levels can be improved by better:

• mission statements

• short term forecast accuracy

• exponential smoothing

• customer selection