Evidence based reasoning: evidence

Belief A: there is no fire in my apartment

Belief B: there is a fire in my apartment

New evidence: the fire alarm is ringing

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

Belief A: there is no fire in my apartment

Belief B: there is a fire in my apartment

New evidence: the fire alarm is ringing, but the fire alarm often rings without a fire

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

Belief A: there is not a fire in my apartment

Belief B: there is a fire in my apartment

New evidence: the fire alarm is not ringing

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

Belief A: there is a small fire in my apartment

Belief B: there is a big fire in my apartment

New evidence: the fire alarm is ringing

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

Belief A: Johny is vegetarian

Belief B: Johny is a vegan

New evidence: Johny buys a Weisswurst

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

Belief A: Johny is vegetarian

Belief B: Johny is not a vegetarian

New evidence: Johny buys a vegan salad which is 40% more expensive than non-vegan salad

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

Fact: I already know Johny doesn't eat meat.

Belief A: Johny is vegetarian

Belief B: Johny is a vegan (also doesn't eat milk,cheese&eggs)

New evidence: Johny buys a vegan salad which is 40% more expensive than a non-vegan salad

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

Belief A: Germany will go to war with Syria

Belief B: Germany will stay out of the conflict with Syria

New evidence: Germany just bought new fighter airplanes

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

• other / no change

Belief A: Germany will go to war with Syria

Belief B: Germany will try to actively prevent a war happening in Syria

New evidence: Germany sent military experts to other countries involved in the conflict

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

• other / no change

Belief A: Vegetables are good for you

Belief B: Vegetables are good for you, but not the ones from The Netherlands

New evidence: Italian tomatoes make you more healthy

What's your new confidence in beliefs A and B after the new evidence?

• A became more likely, B less likely

• B became more likely, A less likely

• both A,B became more likely

• both A,B became less likely

• other / no change