Probability

Likelihood and Probability:

more than 0% less than 50%

• Impossible

• Unlikely

• As likely as not

• Likely

• Certain

Likelihood and Probability:

more than 50% less than 100%

• Impossible

• Unlikely

• As likely as not

• Likely

• Certain

Likelihood and Probability:

As likely as not

• 0%

• 50%

• 100%

Definition:

A list of all the possible outcomes

• Likelihood and Probability

• Sample Space

• Experimental Probability

• Theoretical Probability

• Probability Models

Definition:

- each possible outcome is in only one event

- all the possibilities add up to 1

• Likelihood and Probability

• Sample Space

• Experimental Probability

• Theoretical Probability

• Probability Models

Sample Space:

Action: toss a coin

Sample space: (use comma to separate)

Event: land on tails

(a)  

Sample space:

What is the possible outcome of drawing a stick numbered from 1 to 13? *Use commas to separate*

(a)  

Experimental Probability:

If we asked 600 people if they preferred lions, tigers, or bears, and 70 people said lions, 68 people said tigers, and 62 people said bears, how many would we expect to prefer bears?

• 236

• 179

• 186

• 218

Definition:

a favorable outcome is any outcome from the sample space that satisfies the event.

• Likelihood and Probability

• Sample Space

• Experimental Probability

• Theoretical Probability

• Probability Models

Theoretical probability:

If I flip a coin 20 times and it lands on heads 12 times, how would I write that in theoretical probability?

• P(heads) = 1/2

• P(heads) = 3/5

• P(tails) = 1/2

• P(tails) = 3/5