IFT201c 30-40/105

What's the best definition for a future forecast?

• A prediction of what will most likely happen in the future, based on probability, statistics and simulations.

• A prediction of what COULD happen in the future, based on evidence of how the world is already changing. This evidence is called "signals" of change.

• A description of what you want to happen in the future

Futurist Bob Johansen has a three-word philosophy that sums up the purpose and methods of future forecasting. He uses it in his daily personal life, and not just at work, to practice the skills of arriving before the masses and giving yourself enough time to think more clearly and respond to surprising challenges. What is this three-word philosophy?

• Get There Early

• Foresight

• Insight

• Action

Institute for the Future uses a three-step methodology that Bob Johansen explains in his mini-masterclass video and in the reading this week.The first step of the methodology, or cycle, is to anticipate what might be different in the future. What is the name of this step?

• Get There Early

• Foresight

• Insight

• Action

The second step of the Institute for the Future methodology is to make sense of the possible changes and imagine what you might do to prepare for and take advantage of those changes, or to slow them down and prevent them. What is the name of this step?

• Get There Early

• Foresight

• Insight

• Action

The third step in the Institute for the Future methodology is to start trying new things, today, that let you experiment with possible strategies for the future. What is the name of this step in the cycle?

• Get There Early

• Foresight

• Insight

• Action

Professional futurists often talk about "drivers of change" when making future forecasts. What's a driver of change?

• A person who gets to decide what the future will be.

• A major new technology, global trend or phenomenon that is likely to have a big influence on what the future will be.

• 
  An action you can take today to change what the future will be

What's the best way to describe what Blockchain technology is?

• A decentralized system of record-keeping, in which it is easier to counterfeit or fake data because no one authority is in charge of maintaining the record.

• A decentralized system of record-keeping, protected by a form of math called crypotgraphy so that only experts in security and advanced mathematics have access to the records.

• A decentralized system of record-keeping, protected by cryptography, that creates trust because everyone connected to the system has a complete copy of the record, preventing individuals from faking data or altering the record.

The Blockchain forecast you read this week predicts that we will see three waves of innovation when it comes to blockchain over the next decade.Computing: The rise of a new global "stateful" computing platform that will be highly automated and transparent, and replace Cloud computingCurrencies: The invention of new forms of money, or crypto-tokens, and many new ways of exchanging and distributing money with fewer middle-menCommons: Important physical resources and infrastructure start to be managed by the crowd (ordinary people), instead of by the governments and corporations, when blockchain computing is connected to the Internet of ThingsWhat order are these 3 waves of innovation expected to occur in?

• 
  Computing, Currencies, Commons

• Commons, Computing, Currencies

• Currencies, Computing, Commons

• Currencies, Commons, Computing

This week, you watched two demonstration videos of how to turn signals and drivers into forecasts. Which of the two demonstrated forecasts do you think would impact you the most if it came true? (There is no right or wrong answer to this question. It's just an opportunity for you to reflect on what you learned this week!)

• Yes, you can play with your food! Virtual reality and 3D food printers make mealtime more fun and experimental

• Go team! Professional sports allow fans to buy power-ups for their favourite athletes and teams through physical activity

In this week's readings, you encountered three new scenarios about the future of machines.In the scenario "Machines as Consumers", what is different about this future?

• Instead of deciding what to buy for themselves, most people let artificially intelligent "personal assistants" do their shopping for them.

• Globally, more money is now spent on purchases for keeping machines running than for keeping humans alive.