0.2 Cognitive Biases and Scientific Thinking

Which of the following best describes hindsight bias?

• The tendency to overestimate one's ability to predict future events.

• The belief that one could have predicted an event after it has already happened.

• The tendency to see patterns in random events.

• The inclination to rely on common sense rather than scientific evidence.

Which of the following is an example of overconfidence in predictions?

• Believing you knew the outcome of a game after it has ended.

• Assuming you will get an A on a test without studying.

• Seeing faces in random patterns.

• Using scientific methods to validate a hypothesis.

Which of the following statements is true about cognitive biases?

• They always lead to correct conclusions.

• They can distort our perception of reality.

• They are based on scientific evidence.

• They are not influenced by personal experiences.

Why is it important to be aware of cognitive biases in scientific research?

• To ensure that personal beliefs do not influence the results.

• To confirm that common sense is always correct.

• To avoid using statistical methods.

• To make predictions based on intuition.

How does the tendency to perceive order in random events affect our understanding of probability?

• It makes us more accurate in predicting outcomes.

• It leads us to see patterns where none exist.

• It encourages the use of scientific methods.

• It helps in understanding statistical data.