IMS555 - Chapter 6

What is "uncertainty" in the context of decision theory?

• Knowing all possible outcomes and their exact probabilities

• Having too much data and too much information

• A state where all outcomes are equally likely by default

• A lack of evidence or information preventing a preference for one alternative

What is the principle of insufficent reason?

• Always selecting the worst outcome

• Ignoring all evidence

• Choosing the most likely outcome

• Assigning equal probabilities to all possible outcomes

"Weight" in decision theory is described as being positively correlated with:

• Risk

• Utility

• Evidence

• Evidence

What does Bayesian decision theory state about rational agents?

• They have a coherent set of probabilistic beliefs

• They always choose the option with the lowest expected utility

• They always choose the option with the highest expected utility

• They never change their beliefs based on new evidence

What is the Paradox of Ideal Evidence?

• Evidence that confirms existing beliefs

• Assigning low probability to a hypothesis with high evidence

• Assigning high probability to a hypothesis with low evidence

• Evidence that is irrelevant to decision making

According to Ellsberg's Paradox, what do people tend to choose?

• Unknown probability of winning

• Known probability of winning

• Equal probabilities of winning

• No preference between probabilities

What is the purpose of Reliability-Weighted Expected Utility?

• To ignore all probabilities

• To choose the option with the lowest expected utility

• To maximize uncertainty

• To calculate a definite expected value for each alternative

A statement that leads to a senseless or self-contradictory conclusion despite sound reasoning is called a:

• Theory

• Hypothesis

• Criterion

• Paradox

What is the main idea behind Levi's Lexicographical Test?

• To choose the option with the highest expected utility

• To propose a series of three lexicographically ordered tests

• To ignore all decision criteria

• To assign equal probabilities to all outcomes

Which two paradoxes are specifically highlighted as "Paradoxes of Uncertainty"?

• Allais's and Zeno’s Paradox.

• Paradox of Ideal Evidence and Ellsberg’s Paradox

• The Liar’s Paradox and the Gambler’s Fallacy

• The Prisoner’s Dilemma and Newcomb's Paradox