Modeling Climate Change: Concepts and Applications

Why do scientists create models in science?

• To entertain people

• To replace real-world systems

• To avoid doing experiments

• To make complex systems simpler to study

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NGSS.MS-ESS2-1

NGSS.MS-LS1-2

NGSS.MS-LS2-3

Which of the following is an example of a dynamic model?

• A historical timeline

• A static sculpture

• A subway map

• A weather forecast

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NGSS.HS-ESS3-5

NGSS.HS-ETS1-4

What are Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on?

• Historical events

• Laws of physics

• Random guesses

• Human intuition

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NGSS.HS-ESS3-5

What do GCMs use to simulate Earth's climate?

• 2-D maps

• 3-D gridded cells

• Single equations

• Photographs

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NGSS.HS-ESS3-5

Why can't GCMs use a large time-step of 10 years?

• It would be too fast

• It would be too simple

• It would be too accurate

• Energy would move into adjacent cells

How do GCMs ensure accuracy over long time-scales?

• By using many small time-steps

• By guessing

• By using large time-steps

• By ignoring small changes

What did scientists find when they included human factors in GCMs?

• The predictions matched historical data

• The predictions were less accurate

• The models stopped working

• The predictions were random

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NGSS.HS-ESS3-5

NGSS.HS-ESS3-6

What was the result of the GCMs' predictions when only natural forces were included?

• The predictions were random

• The models crashed

• The predictions were perfect

• The predictions did not match historical data

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NGSS.HS-ESS3-5

What unexpected prediction did GCMs make in the 1990s?

• Rapid cooling of the troposphere and heating of the stratosphere

• No change in temperature

• Rapid heating of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere

• Rapid heating of both the troposphere and stratosphere

What caused the unexpected warming of the troposphere according to GCMs?

• Changes in ocean currents

• Decreased volcanic activity

• Increased solar activity

• Greenhouse gases trapping low frequency radiation

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NGSS.HS-ESS2-4

NGSS.HS-ESS3-5