Probability and Risk Assessment Concepts

The video tutorial discusses probability and its application in assessing risks in oil and gas operations. It highlights the importance of using probability to communicate uncertainty and make consistent decisions. The tutorial explains probability with examples, addresses biases, and emphasizes balancing calculations with subjective perceptions. A scenario of overpressure in a vessel is revisited, demonstrating how probability can guide risk assessment and decision-making.

What is the primary focus of probability in risk assessment?

• Ensuring equipment never fails

• Predicting exact outcomes

• Assessing the likelihood of future events

• Eliminating all risks

Why is it important to have safeguards in oil and gas operations?

• To increase production speed

• To ensure equipment operates at maximum capacity

• To reduce operational costs

• To mitigate risks of unforeseen hazards

What was the main disagreement in the scenario discussion?

• The type of equipment used

• The likelihood of over-pressuring the vessel

• The number of employees required

• The cost of operations

How can poor communication affect probability assessment?

• It improves team collaboration

• It reduces the need for safeguards

• It results in conflicts and misunderstandings

• It leads to faster decision-making

What is probability?

• A guarantee of future events

• An expression of the chance of something happening

• A measure of certainty

• A method to eliminate risks

What is the probability of drawing a 3 from a standard 52-card deck?

• 1 in 26

• 1 in 4

• 1 in 13

• 1 in 52

Why do people often not quantify probabilities in daily decisions?

• They do not face any risks

• They lack mathematical skills

• They are not aware of probabilities

• They have a high degree of certainty in outcomes

What are the two sides of assessing the chance of an event?

• Risks and benefits

• Certainty and uncertainty

• Statistics and predictions

• Calculations and subjective experiences

How can personal experiences bias probability assessment?

• They can lead to overconfidence in unlikely events

• They eliminate the need for statistics

• They ensure all risks are considered

• They provide accurate data

What should a probability assessment be expressed with?

• Graphs

• Images

• Numbers

• Words