Unit One Test Review

Which of the following best describes the difference between a tracking poll and an exit poll?

• Tracking polls only measure long-term changes in ideology, while exit polls measure demographic voting patterns.

• Tracking polls focus on daily campaign fluctuations, while exit polls capture voter behavior immediately after casting ballots.

• Tracking polls measure issue-based opinions, while exit polls only measure presidential approval.

• Tracking polls are unscientific, while exit polls are scientifically rigorous.

Looking at the Gallup Historical Presidential Job Approval Statistics, which trend is most evident?

• Presidents since 2000 have generally had lower average approval ratings than presidents of the mid-20th century.

• Every president who served during the Cold War era had an approval rating above 60%.

• Approval ratings have consistently risen with each new president since the 1960s.

• Average approval ratings were highest during the 1970s and 1980s

Based on the Gallup presidential approval ratings graph, which of the following statements is most accurate?

• Presidential approval ratings often begin high and gradually increase over time.

• Approval ratings frequently fluctuate in response to events, sometimes showing sharp rises or drops within a president’s term.

• Since the 1950s, approval ratings have remained stable around 50% for nearly all presidents.

• Presidents who serve two terms consistently maintain approval ratings above 60%.

Pollsters often report results with a margin of error, which shows how much the results could vary if the entire population were surveyed instead of just a sample. For example, if a poll has a margin of error of ±3%, and 52% of respondents say they approve of the president’s handling of the economy, the actual level of support in the population is likely between 49% and 55%.

A recent national poll of 1,200 adults found that 46% support the president’s handling of the economy, with a margin of error of ±5%.

Which of the following is the most accurate interpretation of this poll?

• Exactly 51% of Americans support the president’s handling of the economy.

• Between 41% and 51% of Americans likely support the president’s handling of the economy.

• c. The poll cannot be trusted because the sample size is too small to be meaningful.

• The president’s approval on the economy is guaranteed to be under 50%.

Based on the Gallup Daily tracking poll of voter support in the 2008 election, how could the data have been useful to John McCain’s campaign strategy?

• The poll could help McCain recognize how successful early May was during his campaign and recreate resonating messages.

• The poll could guarantee victory because all short-term declines in voter support are temporary due to continuing fluctuations.

• The poll could offer support by illustrating to McCain the success of his campaign in August and replicating that strategy.

• The poll could serve as evidence that public opinion research is unreliable and should not play any role in shaping campaign decisions.

During a presidential election, campaigns want to know whether their strategies are working. Tracking polls are one tool that helps provide this information. Unlike one-time national surveys, tracking polls are conducted repeatedly, often every day, using the same questions and methods. This allows pollsters and campaign teams to see changes in voter support over time. For example, if a candidate gives a major speech, releases a new advertisement, or performs strongly in a debate, tracking polls can help show whether these efforts lead to increases in voter support. At the same time, campaigns may also notice declines in support following controversial events or unpopular policy announcements.

What is the primary value of tracking polls for presidential candidates?

• They help candidates measure the impact of campaign events and adjust their strategies based on shifts in voter support.

• They guarantee that the candidates will win because they have strategies that provide precise data.

• They only provide long-term demographic data about how the electorate changes over time.

• They replace the need for more accurate methods such as exit polls, since they always reflect the final outcome.

Based on the graph, what conclusions can be made?

• Voters with higher education levels are more likely to participate in elections

• High School graduates are more likely to vote than the average voter

• Voters with less than a 9th grade education are more likely to vote than college educated voters.

• The gap between "Registered to Vote" and "Actually Voted" is greater in groups with higher education levels.

The graph (2016) suggests that Americans mainly receive information from which source?

• print news

• radio news

• traditional TV news

• online and social media

What is one main benefit that Americans may gain by going online for election news coverage instead of other sources?

• People are given a chance to argue politics.

• People are able to research the candidates and issues.

• Candidates can place advertisements that promote them.

• Political parties can highlight the candidates that favor their issues.

What is political socialization?

• All the people who might be interest group members because they share the same common interest.
• The process through which an individual acquires his/her particular orientations - his/her knowledge, feelings, and evaluations regarding his/her political world.
• How similar cases have been decided in the past.
• The distribution of the population's beliefs about politics and policy issues.