Polling in a Fantasy Realm

In a fantasy realm transitioning to democracy, polling challenges arise due to the reluctance of troll supporters to admit their preference. A coin-based method introduces randomness to provide deniability, allowing for more accurate polling. After an unexpected election outcome, a new strategy using double coin flips is employed to mask preferences for both candidates, ensuring accurate results.

What was the traditional method of choosing leaders in the fantasy realm before transitioning to democracy?

• Magic duels

• Sword fighting

• Dragon jousting

• Archery contests

Who are the candidates in the new democratic election?

• A fierce dragon and a gentle unicorn

• A cunning fox and a noble lion

• A giant orange troll and an experienced tree statesman

• A wise wizard and a brave knight

Why might troll supporters be hesitant to reveal their true preference?

• The troll is feared by the citizens

• The troll has no political experience

• The troll is a newcomer to the realm

• The troll is known for his controversial life choices

What item is used to introduce randomness in the polling process?

• A golden ring

• A crystal ball

• A silver coin

• A magic wand

How does the first polling method work using a coin?

• Flip the coin and report the opposite of the result

• Flip the coin twice and report the result

• Flip the coin once and report 'troll' if heads, otherwise report true preference

• Flip the coin and report 'dragon' if tails

What is the expected percentage of voters who will report 'troll' due to the coin flip in the first method?

• 75%

• 50%

• 25%

• 100%

What event leads to a new election with a third-party candidate?

• The troll withdraws from the race

• The treefellow is burned to a crisp

• The dragon is defeated in battle

• The king abdicates the throne

How does the second polling method disguise both candidate preferences?

• By asking voters to draw lots

• By asking voters to flip the coin twice

• By using a single coin flip

• By using a dice roll

What is the probability of getting two heads or two tails in a row with the second method?

• 50%

• 75%

• 10%

• 25%

What was the final outcome of the election using the second polling method?

• The election is declared invalid

• The treefellow is reinstated

• The dragon wins by a large margin

• The troll wins by a narrow margin