Fed Needs US Job Growth to Slow to 100,000 per Month: JPM

The video discusses the current state of nonfarm payrolls, highlighting a strong job growth forecast of 300,000, despite a need for moderation to influence the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate hikes. The discussion emphasizes the necessity for job growth to slow to 100,000 per month to achieve a controlled unemployment rate of 4.5%. The Federal Reserve's role in targeting labor market softening and inflation is examined, considering the post-pandemic changes in the job market. The challenge for the Fed is to decide when to stop tightening policies before all desired data outcomes are visible.

What is the current moving average of nonfarm payrolls mentioned in the video?

• 286,000

• 160,000

• 300,000

• 100,000

According to the discussion, what job growth number is needed to make the Federal Reserve consider pausing?

• 100,000

• 200,000

• 300,000

• 150,000

What unemployment rate is the Federal Reserve aiming for to consider a pause in policy?

• 3.5%

• 4.5%

• 5.0%

• 6.0%

Why is it challenging for the Federal Reserve to decide when to stop tightening policies?

• Due to the lack of inflation data

• Due to political pressure

• Because of immediate data availability

• Because of the lags in the economic process

What is the Federal Reserve's stance on targeting the labor market post-pandemic?

• They should focus solely on inflation

• They should ignore it

• They should target a softening in the labor market

• They should increase job growth