Is the Summer of Disinflation Over?

The video discusses market dynamics, focusing on disinflation and economic forecasts. It covers investment strategies, particularly in the context of inflation and market adjustments. The bond market and term premium are analyzed, alongside the impact of government fiscal policy on the economy. The discussion highlights the challenges of achieving a 2% core PCE target and the potential for inflation reacceleration.

What is the forecast for core PCE by the end of 2023?

• 2.5%

• 5.0%

• 3.8%

• 4.5%

What is the best trade strategy according to the speaker?

• High-risk stock investment

• Long-term bond investment

• Counter-cyclical portfolio policy

• Pro-cyclical portfolio policy

What is the potential return from TIPS if inflation remains sticky around 4%?

• 8%

• 7%

• 6%

• 5%

What is the main concern regarding the long end of the bond market?

• Stable term premium

• High demand from hedge funds

• Low supply of treasuries

• Potential end of disinflation

What is the speaker's view on the US fiscal deficit?

• It is comparable to other developed countries

• It is irrelevant to the current economic situation

• It is unsustainable and needs counter-cyclical policies

• It is sustainable due to low unemployment

Why is the US dollar considered sustainable as the world's reserve currency?

• Because of its high fiscal deficit

• Because of its deep and liquid market

• Due to its low inflation rate

• Due to its low unemployment rate

What sectors should investors focus on after the yield curve has bottomed?

• Technology and finance

• Staples, utilities, healthcare, and energy

• Real estate and construction

• Automotive and manufacturing