Pantheon Macroeconomics's Tombs on the U.K. Recovery

The transcript discusses the potential inflationary impact of rising energy costs, particularly in the context of fiscal tightening and monetary policy. It highlights concerns about energy prices not being as transitory as expected due to the energy transition. The economic impact on households, especially low-income ones, is examined, with a focus on rising costs and fiscal policies. The discussion also covers interest rates, market expectations, and the economic outlook, including unemployment and GDP forecasts.

What is the primary concern regarding inflation in the current economic scenario?

• Commodity prices are stable.

• Interest rates are decreasing.

• Energy costs are increasing significantly.

• Core inflation is rising rapidly.

How might the energy transition affect inflation in the long term?

• It will stabilize energy prices.

• It may cause long-term inflationary pressures.

• It could lead to deflationary pressures.

• It will have no impact on inflation.

What is the expected impact of the energy price cap increase on consumers?

• Energy bills will remain stable.

• Decrease in energy bills.

• No change in energy bills.

• Significant increase in energy bills.

Which fiscal policy change is considered potentially regressive?

• Decrease in VAT.

• Increase in National Insurance.

• Reduction in corporate tax.

• Increase in income tax.

What is the expected effect of withdrawing the Universal Credit uplift?

• It will have no impact on households.

• It will benefit high-income households.

• It will negatively impact low-income households.

• It will increase household savings.

What is the Bank of England's stance on interest rates for the next year?

• Interest rates will decrease significantly.

• Interest rates will remain stable.

• Interest rates will increase slightly.

• Interest rates will increase significantly.

What is the Bank of England's outlook on unemployment?

• Unemployment will remain steady.

• Unemployment will increase slightly.

• Unemployment will decrease significantly.

• Unemployment will increase significantly.