Business Cycle Has Peaked in India: Nomura's Varma

The transcript discusses the current economic situation, highlighting strong services and investments as positive tailwinds. However, private consumption and imports are weaker than expected. Looking ahead, global slowdown and El Nino pose risks, potentially turning tailwinds into headwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is optimistic about growth but anticipates a shift in focus towards supporting growth as inflation decreases. The RBI may start policy easing by October, with a cumulative 75 basis point reduction expected.

What were the two disappointing aspects in the current economic scenario?

• Government spending and inflation

• Exports and investments

• Private consumption and imports

• Agricultural output and services

What is expected to moderate due to the global slowdown?

• Agricultural production

• Government investments

• Services exports

• Domestic consumption

How does El Nino potentially affect the economy?

• Stabilizes inflation

• Boosts agricultural production

• Increases urban consumption

• Lowers agricultural output

What is the RBI's growth forecast for FI 24?

• 7.5%

• 4.5%

• 5.5%

• 6.5%

When is the policy easing cycle expected to start according to the discussion?

• July

• October

• April

• January