The Key Takeaways From Sifma's Economic Outlook for 2023

The video discusses economic expectations amid recession concerns, based on a survey of chief economists. It covers predictions for CPI, GDP, and unemployment rates, and the likelihood of a mild recession in 2023. Inflation risks are analyzed, considering supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. The impact of fiscal policy in a divided government is explored, with expectations of tight monetary policy. Finally, the state of the treasury market is examined, highlighting liquidity issues and potential reforms.

What is the expected GDP growth rate for the long term according to the survey?

• 1% to 2%

• 2% to 3%

• 0.3% to 0.5%

• 3% to 4%

What percentage of respondents believe the recession will be mild?

• 50%

• 70%

• 100%

• 89%

Which factor is NOT mentioned as a driver of inflation?

• Technological advancements

• Labor markets

• Demand side

• Supply side

What is a potential consequence of a divided government on fiscal policy?

• Expansive fiscal policy

• Immediate tax cuts

• Consistency with monetary policy

• Increased fiscal spending

What is the expected terminal rate range according to the group's belief?

• 4% to 4.5%

• 5% to 5.5%

• 6% to 6.5%

• 7% to 7.5%

What has been a byproduct of the Fed's quantitative tightening?

• Increased liquidity

• Stable interest rates

• Decreased inflation

• Deteriorated liquidity in the treasury market

Which reform is NOT mentioned as being considered for the treasury market?

• Increased data transparency

• Introduction of new currency

• All to all trading

• Central clearing