UBS' Shaw: Question Supply Growth For Base Metals in 2017

The video discusses the impact of geopolitical surprises on markets, with a focus on commodities like gold and oil. UBS strategist Lachlan Shaw provides insights into the 2017 commodity market, highlighting supply and demand dynamics, particularly in China. Key commodities such as copper, zinc, and nickel are analyzed, with projections for price increases due to demand and supply constraints. Risks, including China's property market and US political changes, are considered. The potential impact of fiscal policies, especially in the US, on commodity demand is also explored.

What were the two main factors that influenced the market conditions in 2016?

• Geopolitical surprises and China's stimulus

• US economic growth and European market stability

• Technological advancements and global warming

• Middle East conflicts and African market expansion

What is the expected trend for bulk commodity prices in 2017?

• Prices will decrease significantly

• Prices will remain stable

• Prices will be higher than previously expected

• Prices will collapse

Which base metal is expected to have a significant price increase in 2017?

• Tin

• Lead

• Copper

• Aluminum

What is the main reason for the expected tightening of the copper market in 2017?

• Decreased demand from China

• Technological advancements reducing copper use

• Flat supply growth and better demand

• Increased supply from new projects

What is a key risk factor for the commodities market in the first half of 2017?

• European Union expansion

• China's property market slowdown

• Middle East peace agreements

• US political stability

How might a shift from monetary to fiscal focus impact commodities in 2017?

• It will have no impact

• It will decrease commodity demand

• It will lead to a recession

• It will increase infrastructure spending

What is a potential consequence of new infrastructure projects on commodity demand?

• Delayed impact on demand

• Decrease in demand

• No change in demand

• Immediate increase in demand