It'll Never Fly: Beat Confirmation Bias

The video explores the phrase 'it'll never fly' in project management, highlighting the importance of testing, handling unforeseen events, avoiding confirmation bias, and the dangers of assumptions and overconfidence. It emphasizes the need for continuous learning and viewing projects with fresh perspectives to avoid project failures and crises.

What historical figure doubted the possibility of heavier-than-air flight?

• Galileo Galilei

• Lord Kelvin

• Isaac Newton

• Albert Einstein

What term is used to describe highly unpredictable and impactful events?

• White Swan events

• Black Swan events

• Grey Swan events

• Golden Swan events

What is a common mistake project managers make when compiling status reports?

• Confirmation bias

• Relying on raw evidence

• Ignoring deadlines

• Overestimating budgets

What is a better approach to compiling a status report?

• Relying on assumptions

• Using raw evidence

• Ignoring data

• Following expert opinions

What can lead to crises in project management?

• Constant learning

• Effective communication

• Overconfidence and unvalidated knowledge

• Addressing small failures

Who is most likely to be overconfident according to Philip Tetlock?

• Beginners

• Experts

• Managers

• Students

What mindset should project managers maintain to avoid overconfidence?

• Manager's mindset

• Beginner's mindset

• Expert's mindset

• Student's mindset