UBP: US Recession Likely In Coming Quarters Moving Into Early 2024

The transcript discusses the strong US data and the Fed's potential hawkish stance, analyzing the yield curve and 10-year yields. It examines the yen levels and possible Japanese intervention due to policy divergence and energy prices. The Chinese economic measures, including currency weakening and stimulus, are reviewed. The impact of US monetary policy, rate hikes, and inflation on the consumer is analyzed. Finally, the challenges faced by the ECB and the future outlook for the euro are discussed, considering inflationary pressures and regional differences in Europe.

What is the significance of the 10-year yield moving above 4% according to the discussion?

• It suggests a strong dollar.

• It means lower inflation.

• It fully prices in the Fed's hawkish stance.

• It indicates a recession.

Why might Japan allow the yen to weaken further?

• To gain clarity on Chinese stimulus.

• Due to high energy prices.

• Because of strong domestic growth.

• To increase exports.

At what level is Japanese government intervention in the yen expected?

• 140

• 155

• 145

• 150

What has been China's approach to economic stimulus?

• Aggressive rate hikes.

• Currency strengthening.

• Methodical fiscal measures.

• Immediate tax cuts.

What is the current state of the US economy according to the discussion?

• Experiencing strong data.

• In recession.

• Facing high unemployment.

• Undergoing deflation.

What challenge does the ECB face in setting policy?

• Uniform economic conditions across Europe.

• Divergent economies and jurisdictions.

• Lack of inflationary pressure.

• Excessive fiscal surplus.

What is the expected trend for the euro according to the discussion?

• Staying stable at 1.05.

• Weakening below 1.00.

• Dropping to 0.95.

• Strengthening above 1.10.