Goldman's Hui Shan on China's Growth

The video discusses China's shifting economic priorities, highlighting the transition from growth-focused policies to a more balanced approach that includes security, environment, and distribution. It covers the reshuffling of China's economic leadership and the implications for policy coordination. The relationship between central and local governments is explored, emphasizing the potential for improved policy execution. The discussion also addresses China's COVID-19 policy, the challenges of reopening, and the economic impact. Finally, a GDP growth forecast for 2023 is presented, based on assumptions about policy changes and COVID-19 management.

What was the main reason for China's shift in economic priorities after 2021?

• A decrease in global GDP

• An increase in China's per capita GDP above the global average

• A decline in environmental conditions

• A change in government leadership

What is a significant change in China's economic team as discussed in the second section?

• Increase in the number of economic advisors

• Reduction in the number of economic policies

• Introduction of new leaders with different experiences

• Focus on international trade agreements

How do onshore and offshore investors differ in their views on China's new economic team?

• Offshore investors are more optimistic about growth

• Offshore investors are focused on environmental policies

• Onshore investors are encouraged by regional expertise

• Onshore investors are more concerned about experience

What is a necessary condition for China to ease its COVID-19 policies?

• Completion of the party Congress

• Increase in international travel

• Reduction in global COVID-19 cases

• High vaccination rates among the elderly

What is the GDP growth forecast for China in 2023 based on the assumptions discussed?

• 6.0%

• 3.0%

• 4.5%

• 5.5%

Which sector's stabilization is assumed in the GDP growth forecast for 2023?

• Manufacturing

• Agriculture

• Property

• Technology

What is the expected timeline for China's reopening according to the forecast?

• Third quarter of 2023

• Second quarter of 2023

• First quarter of 2023

• Fourth quarter of 2023