Nakhle: Geopolitics Biggest Wildcard for Oil in 2025

The video discusses the stability of the oil market in 2024, highlighting the lack of major supply losses despite geopolitical tensions and OPEC Plus cuts. It explores the geopolitical influences expected in 2025, including President Trump's policies and their impact on US-China relations. The prospects for US shale production are analyzed, considering market fundamentals and price forecasts. Finally, the challenges faced by OPEC Plus in balancing supply and demand are examined, with a focus on their production decisions for 2025.

What was a key factor in maintaining oil price stability in 2024 despite geopolitical tensions?

• Increased demand from Europe

• High volatility in Asian markets

• Significant supply losses in the Middle East

• Massive spare capacity due to OPEC plus cuts

Which geopolitical factor is considered the biggest wild card for the oil market in 2025?

• African market dynamics

• Middle East tensions

• US elections

• European Union policies

What is a potential consequence of President Trump's trade policies with China?

• Strengthening of the Chinese economy

• Improved US-China relations

• Slowing down of Chinese economic recovery

• Increased oil prices globally

How might President Trump's domestic policies affect US shale production?

• By mandating increased production levels

• By reducing oil prices significantly

• By encouraging massive investment regardless of market fundamentals

• By providing a confidence boost but not necessarily increasing production

What is the expected oil price range for 2025 according to forecasts?

• In the 80s

• In the 70s

• Above 90

• In the 60s

What challenge does OPEC Plus face in balancing the oil market?

• Increasing demand from Asia

• A potential market surplus due to external supply growth

• Decreasing production costs

• High demand for renewable energy

What was the expected growth in oil demand according to OPEC's 2024 forecast?

• 600,000 barrels a day

• 1.4 million barrels a day

• 2.2 million barrels a day

• 3.0 million barrels a day