Rapidan's McNally Sees the Possibility of $150 Oil

The video discusses the probability of an incursion and its impact on energy markets, particularly in Europe. It explores the potential consequences for oil and gas, highlighting that while oil supply disruptions are unlikely, natural gas could be affected. The role of OPEC and geopolitical risks are analyzed, with a focus on the shrinking spare production capacity. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, are examined. The video concludes with a discussion on oil price forecasts, suggesting that while prices may rise, a major geopolitical disruption is needed for significant increases.

What is the estimated probability of an incursion that triggers severe sanctions?

• 80-90%

• 70%

• 50%

• 30%

Which sector is least likely to be affected by sanctions in the event of an incursion?

• Energy

• Agriculture

• Financial

• Technology

What is the primary concern regarding natural gas in the context of geopolitical tensions?

• Increased production costs

• Transit disruptions through Ukraine

• Decreased demand in Asia

• Overproduction in Europe

How does the shrinking spare production capacity affect OPEC's influence?

• Has no impact on OPEC

• Decreases OPEC's relevance

• Strengthens OPEC's market position

• Increases OPEC's control

What recent event is considered more significant than the Russia-Ukraine crisis in terms of oil risk?

• OPEC's monthly meetings

• Natural gas transit issues in Ukraine

• Increased oil production in the US

• Hootie missile attacks on Abu Dhabi

What is the predicted oil price level if the market turns structurally bullish?

• $120 per barrel

• $100 per barrel

• $80 per barrel

• $150 per barrel

What is the expected trend for oil prices later this year according to the base case scenario?

• Prices will remain unchanged

• Prices will drop to the 80s and 70s

• Prices will stabilize around $100

• Prices will rise to $150