Bloomberg Economics Presentation at the Bloomberg New Economy Gateway Europe

The video discusses the evolution of economic forecasting from a simpler past to a complex present, requiring interdisciplinary knowledge. It highlights the challenges posed by global political ideologies, strategic rivalries, and crises like the pandemic. The speaker examines inflation trends, labor market dynamics, and the impact of interest rates on credit conditions. The forecast suggests a modest recession in the US and stagnation in the Eurozone and UK. The video also explores the long-term implications of higher interest rates on fiscal positions and the potential effects of globalization and geopolitical tensions on global GDP.

Why has economic forecasting become more complex in recent years?

• Because of advancements in technology

• Due to a lack of qualified economists

• Due to the need for interdisciplinary knowledge

• Because of a decrease in global trade

What was the actual global inflation rate at the end of 2021 compared to the forecast?

• 3-4%

• 7-8%

• 10%

• 5-6%

What is a significant factor affecting core inflation in the US?

• Increased government spending

• Higher import tariffs

• Decreasing oil prices

• Rising labor costs

What is the expected trend for interest rates according to the speaker?

• They will decrease significantly

• They will fluctuate unpredictably

• They will remain stable

• They will increase and stay high

What is the predicted economic outcome for the US by the end of the year?

• A complete economic collapse

• Continued economic growth

• A modest recession

• A significant economic boom

How might higher interest rates affect government fiscal positions?

• They will stabilize fiscal positions

• They will worsen fiscal positions

• They will improve fiscal positions

• They will have no effect

What could be the impact of geopolitical shifts on global trade by 2030?

• Trade will double

• Trade will fall by about 20%

• Trade will remain unchanged

• Trade will increase by 20%