Goldman's Hatzius: US Recession Likely to Be Shallow

The video discusses the potential for a recession in the U.S., analyzing unemployment trends and the Fed's interest rate forecasts. It highlights the mixed signals from inflation indicators and the Fed's response to economic deceleration. The discussion also covers the Fed's communication strategy and its credibility in the market. Finally, it examines core inflation trends and the future economic outlook, suggesting that core inflation is likely to decrease over time.

What is the estimated chance of a recession occurring in the next 12 months according to the transcript?

• One in five

• One in two

• One in three

• One in four

Why is the Federal Reserve expected to hold interest rates steady in 2023?

• The economy is accelerating

• Inflation is rising

• The economy is decelerating and inflation is coming down

• Unemployment is decreasing

What economic condition might force the Federal Reserve to act despite rising unemployment?

• Economic boom

• Hyperinflation

• Stagflation

• Deflation

What is the Federal Reserve's ultimate goal for inflation?

• 3%

• 4%

• 2%

• 5%

What is the main criticism of the Federal Reserve's communication strategy?

• Misreading by the bond market

• Overly aggressive policy

• Inconsistent messaging

• Lack of transparency

What statistical measure is mentioned as improving in terms of core inflation?

• PPI

• CPI

• Trimmed mean

• GDP deflator

By the end of next year, what is the expected core PCE inflation rate?

• 3%

• 2.5%

• 1.5%

• 4%