Ex-NEC Director Cohn Sees U.S.-China in a Trade Skirmish, Not War

The transcript discusses the ongoing trade skirmish between the US and China, focusing on the potential for a phase one deal and its implications for supply chains and the global economy. It explores President Trump's approach to China, emphasizing the importance of agricultural exports. The challenges faced by businesses due to tariffs and political uncertainty are highlighted, along with the Federal Reserve's role in maintaining economic stability. The outlook for the US dollar and interest rates is considered, and Gary Cohn's current focus on venture capital and technology is mentioned.

What is one potential benefit of the trade skirmish between the U.S. and China?

• Increased dependency on a single market

• Global diversification of supply chains

• Reduction in global trade

• Concentration of supply chains in China

Why is a phase one deal important for U.S. farmers according to the speaker?

• It will decrease the cost of healthcare

• It will increase corporate taxes

• It will allow farmers to export more to China

• It will reduce tariffs on steel and aluminum

What is a consequence of tariffs on steel and aluminum in the U.S.?

• Higher investment in capital

• Disincentivized opening of new plants

• Lower corporate taxes

• Increased competitive advantage

What is a key concern for chief executives around the world according to the speaker?

• Excessive investment in capital

• High corporate earnings

• Lack of visibility in markets

• Over-reliance on a single supplier

What is the role of the Federal Reserve according to the speaker?

• To manage U.S. agricultural exports

• To act as the central banker to the dollar

• To control the supply of steel and aluminum

• To set global trade policies

What is the speaker's current focus in the venture capital and private equity world?

• Agricultural exports

• Medical technology and secure communications

• Automobile manufacturing

• Real estate development

How does the speaker view the current interest rates in the U.S.?

• Low compared to the rest of the world

• High compared to the rest of the world

• Unchanged from previous years

• Irrelevant to global trade