ICRA's Nayar: India's FY24 GDP Growth At 6%

The video discusses the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) challenges with inflation, highlighting recent inflation prints above the tolerance level and the potential for a 25 basis point rate hike. It examines growth trends, noting a slowdown in high-frequency data and projecting GDP growth to decrease. The global tightening cycle's impact on RBI's policy is considered, with hopes that the current cycle may be the last. Inflation risks remain, with concerns about El Nino and crude oil prices. The video also addresses growth and export concerns, emphasizing the importance of government spending and the uneven demand across income groups.

What is the primary reason the RBI is expected to implement a rate hike?

• To stabilize the currency

• To increase foreign investments

• Due to inflation prints exceeding the tolerance level

• To boost economic growth

What is the expected GDP growth rate for India's fiscal year 2024?

• 6.9%

• 5.5%

• 6.0%

• 7.5%

How does the global tightening cycle affect the RBI's monetary policy decisions?

• It has no impact on RBI's decisions

• It encourages the RBI to lower interest rates

• It leads to increased government spending

• It pressures the RBI to continue rate hikes

What is the projected average CPI inflation for the current fiscal year?

• 4.0%

• 5.4%

• 7.0%

• 6.7%

Which factor is NOT mentioned as a risk to inflation in India?

• Crude oil prices

• Government fuel duties

• Increased agricultural output

• El Nino

What is the impact of government decisions on fuel duties on inflation?

• They can influence the CPI through retail fuel prices

• They lead to increased agricultural production

• They have no impact on inflation

• They only affect international trade

What is the outlook for India's merchandise exports in the current year?

• No change from the previous year

• A very weak year anticipated

• Strong growth expected

• Significant increase due to global demand