Signum Global Advisors' Lew Lukens On US-China Relations

The video discusses Brazil's trade relations with China and the US, highlighting the complexities of balancing these relationships. It examines China's muted reaction to US political meetings and assesses the likelihood of a Taiwan-China conflict, estimating a 35% chance in the next 18 months. The potential economic implications of such a conflict are explored, including the challenges of decoupling from China and the impact on global corporate strategies. The video concludes with a discussion on global economic trends, emphasizing the US's efforts to boost domestic manufacturing.

Why does Brazil engage in more trade with China than with the US?

• It makes sense in the context of global power dynamics.

• Because China offers better trade deals.

• Due to geographical proximity.

• Brazil has a historical alliance with China.

What was the Chinese reaction to the speaker's meeting with Tai compared to Nancy Pelosi's visit?

• It was more severe.

• It was more muted.

• It was celebrated.

• It was ignored.

What is the assessed likelihood of a Taiwan-China conflict in the next 18 months?

• 50%

• 25%

• 35%

• 10%

What might a Taiwan-China conflict look like?

• A full-scale invasion.

• An economic embargo.

• A naval blockade and political unrest.

• A diplomatic resolution.

What is the US's strategy regarding its economic relationship with China?

• To increase trade with China.

• To fully integrate with China's economy.

• To ignore China's economic influence.

• To decouple, especially in technology.

What challenge does the US face in forming a global coalition against China?

• Economic dependency on China.

• China's military strength.

• Political differences within the US.

• Lack of interest from European countries.

What positive economic trend is highlighted for the US in the coming decade?

• Decreasing investment in technology.

• Bringing infrastructure and manufacturing back to the US.

• Increased reliance on foreign manufacturing.

• Reducing trade with Europe.