Have Markets Really Priced in a Brexit?

The transcript discusses the rising global risks and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. It highlights market expectations, public opinion, and betting markets, suggesting a low probability of Brexit but acknowledging significant risks. The discussion covers financial market reactions, particularly in currency and bond markets, and the potential economic implications for the UK and Europe. The transcript concludes with the possible impact on European growth and policy responses.

What is the financial market's expectation regarding Britain's status in the EU?

• Britain will remain in the EU.

• The market is undecided.

• The market expects a new referendum.

• Britain will leave the EU.

What is the probability of Brexit according to the bookies?

• 50%

• 75%

• 25%

• 10%

Which type of risk is NOT mentioned in the discussion?

• Credit risk

• Political risk

• Stock risk

• Currency risk

What is expected to be the main shock absorber in case of Brexit?

• The housing market

• The pound sterling

• The gilt market

• The stock market

How have currency traders been described in their approach to Brexit?

• Cautious

• Sanguine

• Pessimistic

• Aggressive

What is the UK's current account deficit as a percentage of GDP?

• 10%

• 7%

• 5%

• 3%

What is the potential economic impact of Brexit on Europe?

• Positive impact

• Minimal impact

• Significant impact

• No impact