Macquarie: Asia Ex-China Central Banks To Normalize Ahead of Fed

The video discusses the implications of US tapering on global markets, particularly focusing on Asian central banks and currencies. It highlights the potential for Asian central banks to act independently of the Fed due to inflation targeting constraints. The video also covers a news update on the Hong Kong exchange, the impact of Fed rate changes on Asian currencies, and the stability of the renminbi amid Chinese market interventions. Finally, it examines the uneven vaccination rollout in Asia and its effects on economic recovery.

What is the expected impact of US policy normalization on the dollar in the second half of the year?

• The dollar will fluctuate unpredictably.

• The dollar will weaken significantly.

• The dollar will be more supported.

• The dollar will remain stable.

How might Asian central banks react to the Fed's policy normalization?

• They will delay their response until 2023.

• They will ignore the Fed's actions.

• They will likely move ahead of the Fed.

• They will follow the Fed's actions closely.

Which Asian currency is expected to perform well as the Fed raises rates?

• Korean won

• Indian rupee

• Japanese yen

• Singapore dollar

What is a key factor affecting the Korean won's performance?

• Structural shift in asset allocations

• Government intervention in the currency market

• Strong export growth

• High sensitivity to interest rate differentials

What is the PBOC's typical approach during major political events?

• Direct market intervention

• Allowing high volatility in asset prices

• Managing asset price volatility

• Ignoring market trends

How might uneven vaccination rollouts in Asia affect economic recovery?

• They will have no impact.

• They may delay recovery.

• They will lead to immediate recovery.

• They will accelerate recovery.

What effect might repeated lockdowns have on Asian currencies?

• Cause extreme volatility

• Have no effect

• Weaken domestic currencies

• Strengthen domestic currencies