U.S. Earnings Likely to Contract 10% in 2023: Citi Private Bank

The video discusses the potential for an earnings recession due to the Fed's tightening, with layoffs in tech and finance sectors impacting consumer demand. It highlights market reactions to earnings reports and employment trends, noting the ongoing effects of financial conditions. The discussion shifts to China's economic outlook, considering the impact of COVID policies and the timing of investments as China leads in recovery. Finally, it addresses investor sentiment, suggesting caution in the near-term outlook due to unreflected economic changes.

What is the expected decline in US earnings growth for 2023?

• 20%

• 15%

• 10%

• 5%

Which industries are seeing the beginnings of layoffs according to the transcript?

• Healthcare and Retail

• Tech and Finance

• Education and Transportation

• Manufacturing and Agriculture

What is the market currently reflecting according to the transcript?

• Stable financial conditions

• Tightening financial conditions

• Increasing consumer demand

• Improving employment rates

What is the expected timeline for China's reopening steps?

• By summer

• By springtime

• By autumn

• By winter

What has weakened in China according to the transcript?

• Healthcare capacity

• Investor confidence

• Political imperative for lockdowns

• Economic recovery drivers

What should long-term investors focus on in China?

• Agriculture

• Real estate

• Core technology and innovation

• Consumer goods

What is the current sentiment of investors going into 2023?

• Too bearish

• Uncertain

• Too bullish

• Neutral