How Trump’s Trade Policies Will Affect the Americas

The transcript discusses the economic impacts of potential changes in trade policies on Latin America, particularly Mexico. It highlights the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA renegotiations and the effects of proposed tax changes by the Trump administration. The discussion also covers Mexico's economic growth projections and the valuation of the Mexican peso, emphasizing the need for detailed analysis and open-minded negotiations.

What is the primary reason South America is less affected by changes in US trade rules compared to Mexico?

• South America has a trade surplus with the US.

• South America has a larger manufacturing sector.

• South America has stronger trade ties with Europe.

• South America is more linked to the commodity cycle.

How might the border-adjusted tax affect Argentina?

• It could lead to increased exports.

• It might cause difficulties similar to the lemon situation.

• It will have no impact on Argentina.

• It will improve Argentina's trade balance.

What is Mexico's approach to renegotiating NAFTA?

• Mexico wants to terminate NAFTA.

• Mexico is unwilling to make any changes.

• Mexico wants to exclude the US from NAFTA.

• Mexico is open to updating and improving NAFTA.

What is a significant challenge Mexico faces in NAFTA negotiations?

• The lack of interest from other NAFTA countries.

• Mexico's plan to reduce trade with the US.

• Mexico's desire to increase tariffs.

• The US's focus on relocating manufacturing back to the US.

What is the projected growth rate for Mexico in 2017?

• 3.5%

• 2.5%

• 4.0%

• 1.7%

What is the current state of the Mexican peso according to economic models?

• Stable

• Undervalued

• Overvalued

• At its correct value

What is expected to happen to the Mexican peso once uncertainties are reduced?

• It will depreciate further.

• It will remain the same.

• It will appreciate back to fundamentals.

• It will become more volatile.