Evercore's Hyman: Trump Victory Would Lead to Market Drop

The transcript discusses market predictions post-2017, focusing on the potential impacts of a Trump presidency compared to a Clinton victory. It analyzes market reactions to Brexit and investor concerns about protectionism and uncertainty. The discussion also covers recession risks, economic outlook, and the influence of emerging markets, particularly China, on the global economy. Key points include the potential for lower taxes, increased fiscal spending, and new trade deals under Trump, as well as the impact of US wages and monetary policies on economic growth.

What was the predicted market reaction if Trump won the presidency, according to the transcript?

• A 10% increase immediately

• A 6% drop followed by a recovery

• A continuous decline over weeks

• No change in the market

Which factor is NOT mentioned as a consideration for investors regarding a Trump presidency?

• Immediate recession

• Lower taxes

• Increased fiscal spending

• New trade deals

What was the general sentiment about the likelihood of a recession in the near term?

• High likelihood of recession

• Low likelihood of recession

• Recession is imminent

• Moderate likelihood of recession

What is considered the biggest risk to market optimism according to the transcript?

• The Fed tightening and dollar spiking

• A sudden drop in oil prices

• A significant increase in unemployment

• A new trade war with China

Which emerging market is highlighted as having improved economic conditions?

• India

• Brazil

• Russia

• China

What is the expected trend for US wages according to the transcript?

• Wages will remain stable

• Wages will fluctuate unpredictably

• Wages will decrease

• Wages will accelerate

What was the reported change in China's nominal GDP by the fourth quarter?

• 6%

• 7.5%

• 8.7%

• 10%