Three Bold Predictions for 2020 From BofA Merrill's David Woo

The video discusses the political and policy uncertainties of 2019 and their impact on global markets. It predicts significant developments in 2020, including US-China trade deals, Brexit, and USMCA ratification. The speaker addresses market reactions, highlighting skepticism and the potential for a global recovery. Insights into the US-China trade negotiations reveal political implications and the importance of enforcement mechanisms. The video concludes with a discussion on the political landscape and its influence on trade deals.

What are the three bold predictions made by the speaker for the upcoming weeks?

• A US-China trade war escalation, a Liberal victory in the UK, and the ratification of the USMCA

• A US-China trade agreement, a Conservative victory in the UK, and the ratification of the USMCA

• A US-China trade agreement, a Labour victory in the UK, and the rejection of the USMCA

• A US recession, a Labour victory in the UK, and the rejection of the USMCA

Why does the speaker believe the market is not yet positioned for a global recovery?

• Because cyclical stocks have outperformed broader indices

• Because the equity market rally has ended

• Because the US dollar is strengthening

• Because the 10-year Treasury yield is still low and the market is pricing in recession

What is the speaker's view on the current state of cyclical stocks?

• They have not been affected by market uncertainties

• They have underperformed compared to broader indices

• They have performed well but not better than broader indices

• They have significantly outperformed broader indices

According to the speaker, what is the general sentiment among equity clients?

• They are optimistic about individual stocks

• They see no value in individual stocks but are buying indices

• They are selling indices and buying individual stocks

• They are not participating in the market at all

What is one reason the speaker believes a US-China trade deal might happen?

• The US economy is booming

• The Chinese leadership prefers dealing with Trump over other US political candidates

• The US has lifted all tariffs on Chinese goods

• The Chinese leadership is confident in Biden's victory

What is the significance of the dispute resolution mechanism in the US-China trade negotiations?

• It ensures the trade deal is enforceable and respected by both parties

• It is a minor detail that can be ignored

• It is a temporary measure until a full agreement is reached

• It is a political tool used by the US to delay negotiations

What is the speaker's perspective on the potential impact of a phase one trade deal?

• It will have no psychological impact

• It will be significant enough to address market concerns

• It will only benefit the Chinese economy

• It will lead to a complete resolution of the trade war