Goldman Sachs' Shan on China's Economic Recovery

The transcript discusses economic data, highlighting the impact of temporary factors on production and the surprising resilience of industrial production. It examines market concerns, policy responses, and the role of the PBOC in addressing growth risks. The analysis covers export trends, consumption levels, and China's transition from manufacturing to services. The impact of vaccination on economic reopening and the zero COVID policy is also explored, along with the balance between financial risks and growth concerns.

What were the two main factors that affected industrial production in June?

• Coal mining shutdowns and semiconductor shortages

• Increased demand and labor strikes

• New government policies and tax hikes

• Natural disasters and export bans

How is the recent triple R cut by the PBOC characterized?

• As a technical liquidity operation

• As a measure to increase taxes

• As a response to poor economic data

• As a broad change in monetary policy

In what terms are exports said to be peaking?

• Both nominal and real terms

• Real terms

• Neither nominal nor real terms

• Nominal terms

What is necessary to drive higher consumption according to the transcript?

• Increased income and reduced precautionary savings

• Higher taxes and more regulations

• More government subsidies and loans

• Lower interest rates and inflation

What is China's approach to COVID-19 compared to other countries?

• China has a zero COVID tolerance policy

• China allows for some COVID cases

• China has no restrictions in place

• China follows the same policies as other countries

What is the expected vaccination rate in China by the end of the year?

• 50-60%

• 60-70%

• 70-80%

• 80-90%

What does the PBOC's recent action indicate about their focus?

• They are not concerned with any risks

• They are attentive to both financial and growth risks

• They are only focused on growth risks

• They are only focused on financial risks