Odds of a No-Deal Brexit Still Very Low, Says Peterson Institute’s Kirkegaard

The transcript discusses the challenges facing Theresa May's Brexit deal, highlighting the low probability of it passing in the UK Parliament. It explores the EU's strategic moves to give the British Parliament more time to find an alternative path, while also considering the potential for a no deal Brexit. The discussion shifts to Theresa May's political future, suggesting her time as Prime Minister is limited. Finally, the transcript examines the implications of the UK participating in EU elections, which could lead to a lengthy extension and possibly a second referendum.

What is the EU's stance on Theresa May's Brexit deal?

• They want to renegotiate the entire deal.

• They fully support it.

• They are indifferent to the outcome.

• They have a Plan B for its failure.

What was the EU's response to the UK's request for an extension to June 30th?

• They agreed without conditions.

• They proposed a new date of July 15th.

• They said they would decide what happens.

• They rejected it outright.

What might happen if Theresa May's deal fails again?

• The UK will leave the EU immediately.

• Indicative votes and amendments may occur.

• Theresa May will automatically resign.

• The EU will impose a new deal.

What is the likelihood of Theresa May remaining Prime Minister after Brexit?

• Very high, she has strong support.

• Uncertain, depends on the deal's success.

• Low, her days are numbered.

• Guaranteed, she has a mandate until next year.

What could participation in EU elections mean for the UK?

• It would strengthen Theresa May's position.

• It would ensure a hard Brexit.

• It could lead to a second referendum.

• It would have no impact on Brexit.

What is the significance of the December vote for Theresa May?

• It showed she had no support.

• It allowed her to remain in control until December.

• It forced her to resign immediately.

• It had no impact on her leadership.

What is the potential impact of a second referendum?

• It would confirm the original Brexit decision.

• It could lead to the revocation of Article 50.

• It would have no effect on Brexit.

• It would automatically result in a no-deal Brexit.