Fed Won't Start Hiking Rates Until Late 2023: Manulife's Trinh

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's potential actions, including tapering and rate hikes, and the associated risks of policy errors. It examines the impact of declining global liquidity on markets, highlighting trends in dollar strength, bonds, and equities. The discussion contrasts developed and emerging markets, focusing on vaccination trends and economic support capabilities. Finally, it addresses the ongoing risks of COVID-19, particularly in Europe, and its implications for global economic recovery.

What is the expected timeline for the Federal Reserve's rate hikes according to the base case scenario?

• Early 2022

• Late 2023

• Early 2023

• Mid 2023

How does a decline in global liquidity typically affect the dollar and government bonds?

• Bullish dollar, bullish government bonds

• Bearish dollar, bearish government bonds

• Bullish dollar, bearish government bonds

• Bearish dollar, bullish government bonds

Which asset class tends to outperform when global liquidity declines?

• Cyclical stocks

• Defensive stocks

• Emerging market equities

• Commodities

What is a key factor contributing to the ongoing dominance of developed markets over emerging markets?

• Lower economic support capabilities

• Better infrastructure

• Stronger currency

• Higher vaccination rates

What is a significant challenge for emerging markets in supporting their domestic demand outlooks?

• Excessive foreign debt

• Limited policy support

• High inflation rates

• Strong currency

What recent events in Europe are considered a material risk to the economic recovery?

• Political elections

• Protests and lockdowns

• Trade agreements

• Currency fluctuations

What has been a clear trend during the pandemic regarding vaccination rates and reopening?

• High vaccination rates do not always correspond with reopening

• Low vaccination rates prevent reopening

• High vaccination rates always lead to reopening

• Vaccination rates have no impact on reopening