Moody's Sheth Sees No U.S. Recession But Says Chances Are Rising

The video discusses the potential for a recession in the US, highlighting the impact of tariffs and trade policy uncertainty on investment and consumer sentiment. It examines market reactions to economic data and the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts. Additionally, it addresses risks in the corporate credit space, noting increased leverage and declining debt quality.

What are the two main reasons for the rising chances of a recession in the US?

• Increased government spending and high inflation

• Tariffs and trade policy uncertainty

• Rising unemployment and declining exports

• Decreasing consumer confidence and high interest rates

What is the impact of tariffs on consumer goods according to the transcript?

• They increase investment in the economy

• They weigh on household sentiment

• They have no effect on household sentiment

• They boost consumer confidence

How has the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's actions changed over the past year?

• From expecting rate cuts to expecting rate hikes

• From expecting rate hikes to expecting rate cuts

• From expecting no change to expecting rate hikes

• From expecting rate cuts to expecting no change

What has contributed to the buildup of corporate leverage in the US?

• High interest rates and strong economic growth

• Declining consumer demand and high inflation

• Low interest rates and attractive borrowing conditions

• Increased government regulation and oversight

What is a potential consequence of the decline in the quality of corporate debt?

• Increased consumer spending

• Higher corporate profits

• Weighing on corporate credit

• Stronger economic growth