China Facing 'Long Battle' to Reflate Economy, Morgan Stanley Says

The transcript discusses the economic situation in Beijing, focusing on the challenges of reflation in China. It highlights the need for a shift from supply-centric to consumption-centric policies, predicting a long-term battle to achieve economic balance. The best-case scenario involves a significant stimulus package and social safety reforms, while the base case suggests continued reliance on supply-centric policies, which may not suffice for quick reflation.

What is the main reason the Central Economic Work Conference's stimulus is considered insufficient?

• It is only a short-term solution.

• It focuses too much on consumption.

• It is too small to impact the economy.

• It is based on outdated supply-centric policies.

What is expected to happen in 2025 according to the speaker?

• The year will be marked by continued experimentation with policies.

• There will be a shift towards consumption-centric policies.

• The government will stop trying new policies.

• China will achieve full economic reflation.

By 2026, what does the speaker predict China will achieve?

• The right combination of policies for reflation.

• A significant reduction in government spending.

• A return to supply-centric policies.

• A complete economic recovery.

What is the best-case scenario for China's economic policy by next year?

• A focus on increasing government investment.

• A shift to a consumption-centric stimulus package.

• Reducing the social safety net for migrant workers.

• Maintaining the current supply-centric approach.

How much is the proposed consumption-centric stimulus package expected to cost?

• 20 trillion RMB over two years.

• 15 trillion RMB over two years.

• 10 trillion RMB over two years.

• 5 trillion RMB over two years.