Treasuries Are Probably at the Top of the Range, HSBC’s Major Says

The video discusses the current state of holding Treasurys into 2021, suggesting that the market is at the top of its range. It proposes a strategy of buying Treasurys when they are near the upper limit of the range, as a potential winning strategy for the first half of the year. The video also examines the Fed's forward guidance and average inflation targeting, suggesting that a move above 1% in Treasury yields would challenge the Fed's stance. The speaker supports the 'lower for longer' thesis, indicating that the market is challenging the Fed's guidance.

What is the speaker's strategy for dealing with Treasurys in the first half of 2021?

• Buy when Treasurys are near 100

• Sell when Treasurys are near 50

• Avoid Treasurys entirely

• Hold Treasurys regardless of the range

Why does the speaker believe Treasurys won't sustain a move above 1%?

• It would challenge the Fed's forward guidance

• It would align with the Fed's guidance

• It would support a higher interest rate environment

• It would be beneficial for inflation targeting

What is the Federal Reserve's expected stance on interest rates according to the speaker?

• Increase rates in the next few months

• Adjust rates based on monthly inflation

• Maintain current rates for three years or more

• Decrease rates immediately

What does the 'lower for longer' thesis imply?

• Interest rates will rise soon

• Interest rates will remain low for an extended period

• Interest rates will fluctuate frequently

• Interest rates will be unpredictable

What is the market's reaction to the Fed's stance on inflation?

• The market is confused by the Fed's stance

• The market is accepting the Fed's stance

• The market is challenging the Fed's stance

• The market is ignoring the Fed's stance