Goldman Cuts US Recession Risk to 20%

The video discusses the US economic outlook, focusing on recession risks and inflation trends. Janet Yellen believes a strong labor market will help avoid a recession, despite global risks from China's slowdown. Goldman Sachs has reduced its recession probability, citing improved inflation data. The Fed's rate hikes may end soon, with the July hike potentially being the last. Market reactions suggest a less likely recession, with retail sales data being crucial to watch, especially due to car price dynamics.

What is one reason Janet Yellen believes the US might avoid a recession?

• Strong labor market

• High inflation rates

• Rising car prices

• Weak consumer spending

What change did Jan Hasias make to the recession risk probability?

• Decreased from 30% to 25%

• Increased from 20% to 25%

• Decreased from 25% to 20%

• Increased from 15% to 20%

What recent economic data is influencing the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes?

• Unemployment rates

• Consumer spending

• Stock market trends

• Inflation data

What is the expected impact of the upcoming retail sales data?

• Rise in retail sales by 0.5%

• Increase in consumer confidence

• Decrease in car prices

• Drop in inflation rates

How might car prices affect consumer spending dynamics?

• By increasing inflation

• By masking slowing consumer spending

• By boosting employment

• By reducing interest rates