Entirely Possible There Is No U.S.-China Deal, Says Deutsche Bank’s Spencer

The video discusses the ongoing US-China trade talks, highlighting the lack of a deal and the potential for tariffs to remain unchanged until after the next election. It examines the impact of tariffs on trade data, noting a decline in export growth and a rebound in imports. The discussion shifts to the Chinese economy, considering factors like consumer behavior and supply chain changes. Finally, the video explores global economic conditions, suggesting a positive outlook as uncertainties around trade and Brexit diminish.

What are the more challenging issues in the US-China trade negotiations?

• Increasing agricultural exports

• Tariffs on pork and soybeans

• Intellectual property rights and foreign investment

• Reducing tariffs on electronics

What does the recent trade data suggest about the Chinese domestic economy?

• It is unaffected by tariffs

• It is growing at a fast pace

• It is stabilizing

• It is declining rapidly

How might the Chinese economy change by the end of next year according to the transcript?

• It will see a rapid increase in GDP

• It will remain stagnant

• It will have low positive growth in exports and imports

• It will experience a significant decline

What is one reason for the potential rise in export growth as mentioned in the transcript?

• Increased government spending

• Disappearance of tariff distortions

• Higher consumer savings

• New trade agreements with Europe

What is the expected impact on global growth as uncertainties around trade and Brexit lift?

• A little bit of upside

• A rapid increase

• No change

• A significant decline