UBP Favors U.S. Stocks, 'Underweight' China, Other Emerging Markets

The video discusses the consensus expectations around a potential recession, noting that the likelihood is only around 30%. The speaker explains that the markets are not pricing in a recession and highlights the hope for a soft landing by the Fed. The video compares the US and European markets with China, emphasizing the economic stimulus measures in China. It also discusses the two major battles in the market: inflation versus interest rates in the US and zero COVID strategy versus science in China. The speaker expresses a preference for US equities while being underweight on China and other emerging markets. The risks in Europe, particularly due to the situation in Eastern Europe, are also highlighted.

What is the consensus expectation for a recession in the next 12 months?

• 10%

• 70%

• 30%

• 50%

Which two major battles are highlighted in the market analysis?

• Recession vs. Growth and Trade War vs. Peace

• Technology vs. Traditional Industries and Inflation vs. Deflation

• Interest Rates vs. Stock Prices and COVID Strategy vs. Vaccination

• Inflation vs. Interest Rates and Zero COVID Strategy vs. Science

What is the current market preference according to the analysis?

• Underweight US, Overweight China

• Overweight Europe, Underweight US

• Overweight US, Underweight China

• Underweight Europe, Overweight Emerging Markets

What is the potential economic outlook for China in the current quarter?

• GDP growth

• Uncertain GDP

• Stable GDP

• GDP decline

What is considered the biggest risk for Europe according to the analysis?

• Aggression in Eastern Europe

• Political instability in Western Europe

• High inflation rates

• Trade disputes with the US