Trade War Subtracts 1% of Growth From China in 2019: Credit Agricole

The video discusses the current economic situation, focusing on industrial profits, economic sentiment, and the impact of the trade war on China's growth. It highlights the contraction in industrial profits due to weak demand and prices, with a projected decline of 5% year-on-year. The discussion also covers the potential improvement in sentiment due to positive trade negotiations. Additionally, the video addresses structural issues in China, such as demographic trends and the deleveraging campaign, which have contributed to the economic downturn. The trade war is identified as a significant factor, reducing growth by one percentage point this year and potentially 1.5 points next year.

What are the main reasons for the contraction in industrial profits?

• Weak demand and high prices

• High demand and low prices

• Weak demand and pricing issues

• Strong demand and stable prices

How does the trade war affect economic sentiment?

• It improves sentiment significantly

• It stabilizes sentiment

• It has no impact on sentiment

• It causes a decline in sentiment

What is one structural issue contributing to China's economic downturn?

• Demographic trends leading to fewer economically active people

• High levels of foreign investment

• Rising employment rates

• Increasing population

What has been the impact of the deleveraging campaign in China?

• Choked off credit flow to investments

• Increased credit flow to investments

• Improved consumer spending

• Boosted infrastructure spending

How much is the trade war expected to subtract from Chinese growth next year?

• 0.5 percentage points

• 2 percentage points

• 1 percentage point

• 1.5 percentage points