State Street's Loh on Markets

The video discusses the potential timing of a recession in the U.S., predicting it might start between the second and third quarters. It examines the impact of peak interest rates and the Federal Reserve's policies on the economy. The speaker suggests maintaining a cash reserve in portfolios due to market volatility. The market outlook for 2023 is considered slightly bullish despite recession indicators like the inverted yield curve. Inflation expectations are discussed, with a focus on whether rates will fall below 3% or rise above 10%.

When is the recession expected to start in the United States according to the discussion?

• Second to third quarter

• Fourth quarter

• Not expected this year

• First quarter of the year

What is the suggested cash allocation percentage in a balanced portfolio during market volatility?

• 15-20%

• 10-15%

• 5-10%

• 0-5%

What does the inverted yield curve in the US indicate?

• A strong economic growth

• A potential recession

• Stable market conditions

• Decreasing inflation

What is the likelihood of inflation reaching above 10% according to the discussion?

• Certain

• Unlikely

• Somewhat likely

• Very likely

What inflation rate range are the markets expecting for the second half of next year?

• Above 5%

• 2-3%

• 1-2%

• Below 1%