Goldman Doesn’t See a Significant Economic Impact From Tariffs

The video discusses the current state of the global economy, which remains in the expansion phase of the business cycle, albeit moving towards its latter stages. It examines the potential impact of trade tariffs on global GDP, estimating a minor effect of 0.1 to 0.2%. In contrast, the US fiscal package is expected to add 0.7% to GDP. While acknowledging risks of escalation and confidence impacts, the speaker does not foresee significant changes in policy or portfolios as a result of these factors.

What phase is the global economy currently in according to the speaker?

• Recession phase

• Expansion phase

• Peak phase

• Contraction phase

What is the estimated impact on global GDP if all proposed tariffs are implemented?

• 0.5% to 0.6%

• 0.3% to 0.4%

• 0.7% to 0.8%

• 0.1% to 0.2%

What does the speaker suspect about some of the proposed tariffs?

• They will be increased

• They will be rolled back

• They will be doubled

• They will remain unchanged

How much is the US fiscal package expected to add to GDP this year?

• 0.1%

• 0.3%

• 0.5%

• 0.7%

What is the speaker's view on the likelihood of changing policy in portfolios due to the current situation?

• Certain

• Unlikely

• Somewhat likely

• Very likely