The 'Unknowables' That Could Help Trump Win

The transcript discusses the potential impact of voter behavior on political commentary and market stability, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the US election and its comparison to other political events like the Greek referendum and Brexit. It also touches on the significance of the Italian referendum and the possible outcomes of the US election, including the probabilities of different scenarios involving Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

What is the potential impact of voters who dislike both candidates equally?

• They are likely to vote for a third-party candidate.

• They could create havoc in the corridors of commentary.

• They have no impact on the election outcome.

• They are the same as undecided voters.

How do markets generally react to political uncertainties?

• They become more stable.

• They ignore political events.

• They worry about exogenous shocks.

• They always predict the correct outcome.

What past events are mentioned as examples of market reactions?

• The Canadian election and the Australian referendum.

• The French election and the German referendum.

• The Greek referendum and Brexit.

• The US election and the Italian referendum.

What is the probability of Democrats capturing both the House and Senate according to the electronics market?

• 10%

• 20%

• 30%

• 50%

Which event is considered potentially more destabilizing than the US election?

• The Canadian referendum

• The German election

• The Italian referendum

• The French election