Brexit Chance Down to 23%: Good Judgement

The video discusses the role of superforecasters in predicting Brexit outcomes, highlighting the shift in probability from 24% to 23%. It explores the potential economic impact of Brexit on the US, particularly regarding Federal Reserve decisions. The video also examines disparities in polling and forecasting methods, emphasizing the importance of analyzing past referendums and the willingness to adapt predictions.

What is the current probability of Brexit according to Good Judgment's superforecasters?

• 37%

• 23%

• 20%

• 24%

Who is associated with the development of the superforecasting methodology?

• Matt Singh

• Dennis Lockhart

• Simon Kennedy

• Philip Tetlock

What is one key skill that superforecasters possess?

• Inherent talent

• Ability to predict without data

• Willingness to change their mind

• Strong opinions

How might Brexit affect the Federal Reserve's rate hike schedule?

• It could accelerate the schedule

• It might delay the schedule by three months

• It will cause an immediate rate hike

• It will have no effect

What do superforecasters consider when analyzing polls?

• The most popular opinion

• The quickest available data

• Only the latest poll results

• The history and track record of the pollsters