Ballard: Markets have not fully priced war impact

The video discusses the potential for an imminent recession, focusing on the Treasury curve's inversion and the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. It highlights the need for selectivity in equities as a hedge against inflation, given the current geopolitical tensions, particularly the Ukraine conflict. The discussion also covers the impact of these factors on global markets and the dollar-yen exchange rate, emphasizing the influence of geopolitical events and central bank policies.

What is a key indicator of an imminent recession discussed in the video?

• Increase in consumer spending

• Decrease in unemployment rates

• Flattening of the Treasury curve

• Rising stock prices

According to the video, what are some underlying drivers of current inflation?

• Demand shock and geopolitics

• Decrease in oil prices

• Increased savings rates

• Technological advancements

Why might equities be considered a good hedge against inflation?

• They offer guaranteed returns

• They are less volatile than bonds

• They can provide returns that outpace inflation

• They are not affected by geopolitical tensions

What impact does the Ukraine war have on global markets according to the video?

• It has no impact on global markets

• It increases headline risk and market volatility

• It reduces market volatility

• It stabilizes energy prices

What factors are influencing the dollar-yen relationship?

• Stable economic conditions globally

• Decreasing demand for the dollar

• Geopolitical tensions and BOJ's easing policy

• Rising interest rates in Japan